thank you for this. Seems to me like a no brainer? Did some work on this before, their intangibles are very hard to replicate. The aggressive insider buy and stock grants says there's prob no financial shenanigans. Trough earnings, no debt, single digit pe. Crazy how forsaken UK is atm.
If the UK mkt is not forsaken enough, well, look at thinly traded stocks; if that's not forsaken enough, look at thinly traded financial institutions; if that's not forsaken enough, well, look at thinly traded EM focused F.I... especially ones that guided down earnings, bidder walked away and major banks just dropped coverage of
Any idea what the most recent LTIP program implies (Aprl 2025)? Did they realize that the original LTIP 2026 targets are not achievable and they replaced them with sth not transparent to the market?
I have been crunching the numbers for take rates. Q4 was not good at all. They are still in free-fall. Not sure when the fall will end. Maybe at 20 bps for emerging markets. This would be in line with pre-covid take rates and impliy that top line most likey falls further in 2025. Do you have any idea about where take rates should bottom?
Yes very odd LTIP 2026. I think I made an analytical mistake given the 2024 LTIPs. I framed CABP as a business troughing set for rebound. I now think it should have been, a business over earning, set for reset.
I don’t think the 2024 LTIPs will hit but 2024 probably trough earnings. Cheap stock at a deep discount to book now. But market be littered with opportunities soon with cheap and higher quality names.
Agree. As great names are finally conibg on sale why owning low quality names. However, the business of CAB doesn't seem broken but I would like to see a reversal of the trend in take rates + an even lower price to provide more upside in these turbulent times. In the current market it might easily hit 20 GBX...
Hearsay Wise is a customer of Cabp, or so claims the company. My friends in the buyside apparently notified me that Wise themselves denied being a customer of CABP. But I'm no expert on Wise and mainly fascinated by how cheap this firm is. I think the answer is two-fold
1) CABP's target market TAM was 2.3T in 2022 and 6.6b in revenue terms poised to outpace global cross border payment growth of 3% p.a. w a 4.2% p.a. growth; so CABP really has a mere sliver of this growing market i.e. 1-2%. Moreover, there is incremental share to be taken as traditional banks exit correspondent banking r/s in EMs due to high regulatory costs/compliance, risk profile etc, ceding said svcs to players like CABP.
2) CABP as per the prospectus is known as a regulated EM specialist vs e.g. WISE (a regular specialist) - the difference being the banking license providing credibility - trad banks and regulators will trust them more. Typically B2B co's like CABP work with B2C players like Wise (falling under their NBFI making up 30-35% of CABP's revenue). It also helps that CABP actually specializes in this region, so multiple nostro accounts and direct banking relationships with local banks across this region which a B2C NBFI focusing more on what its consumer needs/wants would not necessarily have.
Grabbed some shares at 69 pence. Looking for more UK tax loss murder victims if anyone has a list.
Good call. Hope it works out well for both of us in 2025
CFO leaving without a replacement shook me out of my little starter. On to the next punt!
London microcaps always funky. This is defo not a good look, ugh
thank you for this. Seems to me like a no brainer? Did some work on this before, their intangibles are very hard to replicate. The aggressive insider buy and stock grants says there's prob no financial shenanigans. Trough earnings, no debt, single digit pe. Crazy how forsaken UK is atm.
If the UK mkt is not forsaken enough, well, look at thinly traded stocks; if that's not forsaken enough, look at thinly traded financial institutions; if that's not forsaken enough, well, look at thinly traded EM focused F.I... especially ones that guided down earnings, bidder walked away and major banks just dropped coverage of
haha true lol
Any idea what the most recent LTIP program implies (Aprl 2025)? Did they realize that the original LTIP 2026 targets are not achievable and they replaced them with sth not transparent to the market?
https://d2ysp6t8sg26jc.cloudfront.net/2025-04-04/7686D/fd8e7ad2bc8d06fc9221c2dbd66d1b30f5a74dce.html
I have been crunching the numbers for take rates. Q4 was not good at all. They are still in free-fall. Not sure when the fall will end. Maybe at 20 bps for emerging markets. This would be in line with pre-covid take rates and impliy that top line most likey falls further in 2025. Do you have any idea about where take rates should bottom?
Yes very odd LTIP 2026. I think I made an analytical mistake given the 2024 LTIPs. I framed CABP as a business troughing set for rebound. I now think it should have been, a business over earning, set for reset.
I don’t think the 2024 LTIPs will hit but 2024 probably trough earnings. Cheap stock at a deep discount to book now. But market be littered with opportunities soon with cheap and higher quality names.
Also think US license be damned now fwiw.
Agree. As great names are finally conibg on sale why owning low quality names. However, the business of CAB doesn't seem broken but I would like to see a reversal of the trend in take rates + an even lower price to provide more upside in these turbulent times. In the current market it might easily hit 20 GBX...
Looks really cheap should probably be trading higher, however, in the Long Term are companies like Wise plc not going to eat into its market share?
Hearsay Wise is a customer of Cabp, or so claims the company. My friends in the buyside apparently notified me that Wise themselves denied being a customer of CABP. But I'm no expert on Wise and mainly fascinated by how cheap this firm is. I think the answer is two-fold
1) CABP's target market TAM was 2.3T in 2022 and 6.6b in revenue terms poised to outpace global cross border payment growth of 3% p.a. w a 4.2% p.a. growth; so CABP really has a mere sliver of this growing market i.e. 1-2%. Moreover, there is incremental share to be taken as traditional banks exit correspondent banking r/s in EMs due to high regulatory costs/compliance, risk profile etc, ceding said svcs to players like CABP.
2) CABP as per the prospectus is known as a regulated EM specialist vs e.g. WISE (a regular specialist) - the difference being the banking license providing credibility - trad banks and regulators will trust them more. Typically B2B co's like CABP work with B2C players like Wise (falling under their NBFI making up 30-35% of CABP's revenue). It also helps that CABP actually specializes in this region, so multiple nostro accounts and direct banking relationships with local banks across this region which a B2C NBFI focusing more on what its consumer needs/wants would not necessarily have.
Interesting. Thanks for the detailed response