Great write-up and summary of the situation. The secondary dislocation seems like a real gift for building the position. Also, I really appreciate the shout out on my article!
Another really good pitch. Buying today. What I like:
- A large seller who doesn't care what the shares are worth.
- Retail has likely left this ticker for dead. Paid discords I track were in AMTM for a "next PLTR" type play in January and maybe also thought the alien tech thing would meme, then everyone dumped their American defense exposure for European.
Thanks MM. I've been eating glass a little with some of em so your words are very encouraging. I appreciate <3.
Good entry pt. 12 march volumes were insane, 10.6m shares sold, ~3x the average. It moderated down ytd. So good entry point.
As for the placement, it was oversubscribed and with allocations concentrated to a few key placees. Mainly LO funds and existing investors - I'm thinking the PE funds etc on the register atm. So it's just BoFA maintaining its prime broker r/s with its clients and taking their bids... I assume this explains the discrepancy between being oversubscribed and placing shares at an astounding 17.5% discount, far higher than what I've seen in many cases and places AMTM at bottom barrel valuations.
Big DOGE risk remains however and yes, orange man risk - on that front, i've been raising cash.. don't think this year will be a good one for equities in the US. But famous last words
My late 2024 was all glass eating, 2025 was my best start to a year then I ate another variety of glass today. It’s that earnings miss glass where you see the after hours print and hope for a softer reaction in the morning and remember the whole market is no bid. So you’ve got company my friend. Let’s raise some cash cuz it’s bound to be a year of opportunities <3
Unsatisfactory answer prolly but I’m thinking half for a quick bounce and the rest for LT. Think there’s a credible thesis behind this with rerating potential. But I do have some exposure to these DOGE spendings - I own OTM LEAPS on KBR as well - which is an Irenic activist co split up play.
Great write up
Great write-up and summary of the situation. The secondary dislocation seems like a real gift for building the position. Also, I really appreciate the shout out on my article!
Nice write-up. I wasn’t aware of your newsletter until it now. I also wrote a few articles on Amentum $AMTM since December 2024, FYI.
https://www.safeharborstocks.com/p/amentum-amtm-deleveraging-for-long
Another really good pitch. Buying today. What I like:
- A large seller who doesn't care what the shares are worth.
- Retail has likely left this ticker for dead. Paid discords I track were in AMTM for a "next PLTR" type play in January and maybe also thought the alien tech thing would meme, then everyone dumped their American defense exposure for European.
- Meaningful insider buys above my entry.
- Acid pick.
What I don't like:
- Orange man wants SPY to die.
Thanks MM. I've been eating glass a little with some of em so your words are very encouraging. I appreciate <3.
Good entry pt. 12 march volumes were insane, 10.6m shares sold, ~3x the average. It moderated down ytd. So good entry point.
As for the placement, it was oversubscribed and with allocations concentrated to a few key placees. Mainly LO funds and existing investors - I'm thinking the PE funds etc on the register atm. So it's just BoFA maintaining its prime broker r/s with its clients and taking their bids... I assume this explains the discrepancy between being oversubscribed and placing shares at an astounding 17.5% discount, far higher than what I've seen in many cases and places AMTM at bottom barrel valuations.
Big DOGE risk remains however and yes, orange man risk - on that front, i've been raising cash.. don't think this year will be a good one for equities in the US. But famous last words
My late 2024 was all glass eating, 2025 was my best start to a year then I ate another variety of glass today. It’s that earnings miss glass where you see the after hours print and hope for a softer reaction in the morning and remember the whole market is no bid. So you’ve got company my friend. Let’s raise some cash cuz it’s bound to be a year of opportunities <3
Thanks in @17.79 are you ok holding for long term, or a quick bounce?
Unsatisfactory answer prolly but I’m thinking half for a quick bounce and the rest for LT. Think there’s a credible thesis behind this with rerating potential. But I do have some exposure to these DOGE spendings - I own OTM LEAPS on KBR as well - which is an Irenic activist co split up play.