I don't know if there is any way to force Management/GP's hand into paying out cash-flow? Perhaps they'll just continue paying down debt for the next few years (as they have since COVID with their cash-flow).
Hi Steven, thanks for the question. $HMLP was taken out at 7x EBITDA last year and 0.7+x book value with similar dynamics (what I forgot to mention was that Larus Holdings is a JV with Morgan Stanley Infra fund and the GP, so very similar structure to BLK GEPIF and the Livanos Family); other trading peers would be DLNG which trades at 9.18x LTM EBITDA (as per TIKR) and 40% of book value. Lastly, TGP trades at 12x EBITDA and 0.9x book value.
Thanks! I don't have a BamSEC subscription, thus couldn't view your link. My assumption is your "TGP" is "Teekay LNG Partners L.P."...if so, wasn't TGP taken out a couple months ago (i.e., in Jan2023) at a bit higher price and now rebranded as Seapeak?
CoolCo just obtained an NYSE listing, trades at 1.6b EV and generated 168m of EBITDA for 2022 => 9.52x EBITDA and slightly north of 0.9x book value.
It's fairly obv that Coolco believes there would be adequate investor appetite (hence the NYSE listing) due to the tailwinds that should solidify structurally higher TCE rates
A huge joke of a price tbf, all coming straight from contracted cash flows i.e. increased dividend. - so much leverage through the EV, wonder how the adjustment from $7.7 to $8.65 was made. Doesn't feel like the end game however; seems to me like GP biding time and taking their chances.
In any case, this would have to be put through a vote; asked some smarter special sit investors and they advised waiting for the merger proxy to drop before discussing following plan of action.
appreciate your insights. In the mean time while we wait for the proxy Im putting together a list of shareholders and rough estimations of their cost basis; hoping to gauge whether or not the big shareholders will be friendly at this price.
Also curious what an activist coming in might look like, they do cap voting rights at 4.9% but there are some other conditions that make it intersting.
Nice idea. For those of us that haven't looked at the space before, other than filings, any good primers on the indsutry/best place to find industry data such as that shown in your post?
Via seeking alpha news followed by other special sit investors I follow. I suggest following @jfineman on Twitter and turning on notifs for a slew of up to date news in the transactions space.
Thanks! I see @jfineman posted SA's Jan25,2023 news release and never again about GLOP. Also, I see SA's other two Jan26,2023 and Jan31,2023 writeups (your substack writeup has a lot more content than those other two). Did you find your additional information from filings?
Very well laid out.
I agree with everything, except perhaps stock going to $7 if deal is cancelled.
It may rally - to $10+ (where it belongs) - as everyone is now more versed on its value.
I'd rather it doesn't get bought out, and they start distributing their wind-fall of cash-flow.
I don't know if there is any way to force Management/GP's hand into paying out cash-flow? Perhaps they'll just continue paying down debt for the next few years (as they have since COVID with their cash-flow).
What are the 2nd and 3rd closest peers of GLOP (in addition to the peer that you mentioned is the 1st most similar to GLOP...i.e., FLNG)? Thank you
Hi Steven, thanks for the question. $HMLP was taken out at 7x EBITDA last year and 0.7+x book value with similar dynamics (what I forgot to mention was that Larus Holdings is a JV with Morgan Stanley Infra fund and the GP, so very similar structure to BLK GEPIF and the Livanos Family); other trading peers would be DLNG which trades at 9.18x LTM EBITDA (as per TIKR) and 40% of book value. Lastly, TGP trades at 12x EBITDA and 0.9x book value.
Peer list as per Evercore's valuation docs: https://www.bamsec.com/document-search?query=dcf&entityId=1534126
Thanks! I don't have a BamSEC subscription, thus couldn't view your link. My assumption is your "TGP" is "Teekay LNG Partners L.P."...if so, wasn't TGP taken out a couple months ago (i.e., in Jan2023) at a bit higher price and now rebranded as Seapeak?
https://www.teekay.com/blog/2022/01/13/teekay-lng-partners-l-p-closes-acquisition-by-stonepeak-and-will-rebrand-as-seapeak/
Just another interesting fact-
https://www.investegate.co.uk/cool-company-ltd./gnw/completion-of-reregistration-process--ticker-change--and-conclusion-of-trading-suspension-on-euronext-growth-oslo-and-commencement-of-trading-on-the-nyse/20230316204707H8574/
CoolCo just obtained an NYSE listing, trades at 1.6b EV and generated 168m of EBITDA for 2022 => 9.52x EBITDA and slightly north of 0.9x book value.
It's fairly obv that Coolco believes there would be adequate investor appetite (hence the NYSE listing) due to the tailwinds that should solidify structurally higher TCE rates
apologies, you are right. So TGP was taken out then at the numbers laid out above.
any updated thoughts on the $8.65 buyout offer and whether we see another bump? thanks
nevermind, just saw comments below
Doy you have any new thoughts on the announced deal?
A huge joke of a price tbf, all coming straight from contracted cash flows i.e. increased dividend. - so much leverage through the EV, wonder how the adjustment from $7.7 to $8.65 was made. Doesn't feel like the end game however; seems to me like GP biding time and taking their chances.
In any case, this would have to be put through a vote; asked some smarter special sit investors and they advised waiting for the merger proxy to drop before discussing following plan of action.
appreciate your insights. In the mean time while we wait for the proxy Im putting together a list of shareholders and rough estimations of their cost basis; hoping to gauge whether or not the big shareholders will be friendly at this price.
Also curious what an activist coming in might look like, they do cap voting rights at 4.9% but there are some other conditions that make it intersting.
Nice idea. For those of us that haven't looked at the space before, other than filings, any good primers on the indsutry/best place to find industry data such as that shown in your post?
FLNG's transcripts and presentations are where it's at! Also GLOP's presentations.
legend. thank you!
Acid Invesments, where did you first learn about this idea GLOP? Many Thanks
Via seeking alpha news followed by other special sit investors I follow. I suggest following @jfineman on Twitter and turning on notifs for a slew of up to date news in the transactions space.
Thanks! I see @jfineman posted SA's Jan25,2023 news release and never again about GLOP. Also, I see SA's other two Jan26,2023 and Jan31,2023 writeups (your substack writeup has a lot more content than those other two). Did you find your additional information from filings?
Yes. It's all in the filings and transcript calls, BamSEC is an incredible resource for that and well worth the subscription IMO.