9 Comments

Hey! I couldn't find a way to contact you directly on Twitter or here. I saw you made some comments about $AVAP months ago on Twitter and, I think, also a discussion in the Lemon Fool forum. I was wondering if you had revisited this name given recent developments and your general thought about the name

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Hey! Yeah I havent been following this name in awhile but the story seems to be better now i.e. Chris and Jeremy onboard + news that someone approached the firm to be acquired. It's defo cheap on an NAV basis, just find it hard to reconcile the quality of that NAV. In hindsight should have just purchased Aercap.

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The purchase rights surely make it difficult to get to reconcile!

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Thanks for the update, very interesting. Are you playing this with options or commons?

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Both, taking into consideration various scenarios such as a price recut, delays etc.

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I see.

Mostly in the commons here, find it a bit to binary with the options.

Any favorite strike and expiry?

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I'm looking out into March/July $20. $25 seems a little too risky in the event of a price cut (in some way that I'm not cognizant of). I just updated the piece and think the bonds make an interesting safe r/r trade. Not an expert though so would be happy to hear your thoughts too.

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Really like it. Think the risk of permanent loss i very small, market way underestimating the RTX compensation.

Need to consider the time(years?) if they do file though and also the process, potential paperload/administration. Kept myself out of the bond so far even though im considering it.

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Yeah i forgot to mention (re-added soz :p) the purchase committments so really runway is ~10-12months on my numbers. If they could somehow defer purch comm and +RTX cash infusion - that would def see the bond through to 2025 where it could be refi-ed.

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