Hmm don't quite understand.. the multiple seems to be very low for the growth being projected. Or are u questioning the growth?
On earnings, mature margins at PSIX should be around ~35% GM... so I think as biz grows, eventually power solns should be majority of rev and headline gross margins should be close to 35%; as a corollary profit margins will be a lot higher. We'll see
Your note about using Tripadvisor in Europe makes me curious. Most antitrust cases by governments against big tech seem unfocused. Yet what Google did to Tripadvisor and Yelp in the 2010s, that seems to tick a lot of boxes, you could argue actual harm. Europe started implementing a Digital Markets Act in 2024. In theory DMA limits preferential search results. Yet I don't see TRIP bulls or management pointing to this or any new law as helping the core business. The decline continues. Nothing to see there?
More fascinated by the setup here (share repo, clearing of dual structure etc) and not so close to the biz details per se. But I think the way to pencil your downside is to value Tripad very conservatively, like a melting ice cube... and assume it's a cash cow to fund growth at Viator and theFork. I wouldn't own TRIP if not for the 2 other businesses, I don't think Tripad grows from here at all.. stemming declines would be incredible already.
If you think Viator and theFork are worth a decent sum, then there's upside from here and perhaps imminent catalysts given LTRPA is no longer in the picture.
Yeah I should framed my question as an upside kicker to your idea, since if we get a trend of governments truly forcing big platforms to give less screen real estate to first party data and features they’ve built up over the years, Tripad stabilizes and shocks the market; and if we don’t, everything you said still stands.
At least on consumer habits, for e.g. Tik Tok and IG reels exhibit many travel guides… my friend is a “foodfluencer” and uses IG reels to provide recommendations with stunning videos etc.
Thanks, and happy new year, I like the Trip idea looks quite asymmetrical limited downside with a nice upside potential.
PSIX sounds v interesting. The earnings multiples in this tweet seem high, any thoughts?
https://x.com/UncleAlpha007/status/1873805153519731109
Hmm don't quite understand.. the multiple seems to be very low for the growth being projected. Or are u questioning the growth?
On earnings, mature margins at PSIX should be around ~35% GM... so I think as biz grows, eventually power solns should be majority of rev and headline gross margins should be close to 35%; as a corollary profit margins will be a lot higher. We'll see
Your note about using Tripadvisor in Europe makes me curious. Most antitrust cases by governments against big tech seem unfocused. Yet what Google did to Tripadvisor and Yelp in the 2010s, that seems to tick a lot of boxes, you could argue actual harm. Europe started implementing a Digital Markets Act in 2024. In theory DMA limits preferential search results. Yet I don't see TRIP bulls or management pointing to this or any new law as helping the core business. The decline continues. Nothing to see there?
More fascinated by the setup here (share repo, clearing of dual structure etc) and not so close to the biz details per se. But I think the way to pencil your downside is to value Tripad very conservatively, like a melting ice cube... and assume it's a cash cow to fund growth at Viator and theFork. I wouldn't own TRIP if not for the 2 other businesses, I don't think Tripad grows from here at all.. stemming declines would be incredible already.
If you think Viator and theFork are worth a decent sum, then there's upside from here and perhaps imminent catalysts given LTRPA is no longer in the picture.
Yeah I should framed my question as an upside kicker to your idea, since if we get a trend of governments truly forcing big platforms to give less screen real estate to first party data and features they’ve built up over the years, Tripad stabilizes and shocks the market; and if we don’t, everything you said still stands.
At least on consumer habits, for e.g. Tik Tok and IG reels exhibit many travel guides… my friend is a “foodfluencer” and uses IG reels to provide recommendations with stunning videos etc.
OK that’s it we gotta ban TikTok too now